Early-Stage Crypto Bull Cycle Supported by Central Bank Easing and Subdued Sentiment

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, contends that the cryptocurrency bull run remains in its infancy. Traditional economic indicators—far from euphoric late-cycle extremes—suggest room for growth. ISM, NAHB, and other sentiment measures paint a picture of an economy building momentum, not peaking.

Central bank policy amplifies this thesis. Nearly 90% of global central banks are cutting rates, creating what Bittel calls "extraordinary" conditions. This monetary easing acts as a tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Oil prices, trading 20% below trend, further reinforce the early-cycle argument.

The analysis challenges prevailing market narratives that assume peak-cycle conditions. Subdued sentiment across manufacturing, services, and consumer metrics diverges sharply from historical late-cycle euphoria. For crypto investors, the data implies sustained runway ahead.